Evaluating potential future events to predict possible results and outcomes. US regulators define operational risk scenario analysis as a systematic process of obtaining expert opinions from business managers and risk management experts to derive reasoned assessments of the likelihood and loss impact of plausible high-severity operational losses. Scenario analysis can identify quantitative and qualitative impacts, as well as financial and non-financial ones. Within the Basel Committee operational risk framework, risk scenarios are meant to be forward looking – hypothetical plausible constructs, not forecasts or predictions. They are also meant to compliment internal and external data.

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